Academic Year 2011-2012

Syria and its Neighbors after the "Arab Spring"
October 24, 2011, 12:30 PM
Fares Center Conference Room (Mugar 129), Tufts University
Speakers: Yerevan Saeed (MALD '13), Sybil Ottenstein (MALD '13), Firas Said (Tufts '12), Malek Nehlawi (Tufts '12), and Bader N. Abu-Eid (Tufts '13)
Chaired by: Ambassador William A. Rugh, Fares Center Visiting Scholar

Summary

On October 24, 2011, Ambassador William Rugh chaired a roundtable about the Syrian uprising and the subsequent reactions from Syria's neighbors. Members of the Tufts community examined the spectrum of views from different neighboring countries.

Fletcher professor Ibrahim Warde began the roundtable by presenting the range of reactions within Syria. He explained that the future of Bashar al-Assad's regime is difficult to predict, as the minority Alawites (the Shi'a sect to which Assad belongs) and other Syrian minorities view the current regime as their protector and hope to see it survive the crisis. Sunni Syrians paint a very different portrait of the regime and of the recent violence, and comprise the majority in the regions that have been the target of violence in the past months. Warde explained that the US government has typically viewed the regime as problematic, but also as a provider of stability. Obviously, stability has waned.

Cecilia Sibony, a first year Fletcher student, provided the Israeli reaction to the Syrian unrest. She contended that Israel, until recently, viewed Syria as a "reliable foe" that maintained a stable Syrian-Israeli border. Within Israel, there is a wide range of opinions: some hope to "stick with the devil they know," while others, on humanitarian grounds, would like to see Assad's ouster. However, the Israeli government fears that Syrian elections would favor the Muslim Brotherhood, which they argue could end a hope for peace between Israel and Syria. There is also debate in Israel as to whether the death of Assad's regime would increase or diminish Iranian influence on Israel's borders.

Yerevan Saeed, another Fletcher student, represented Iraq's reaction to the uprisings. He explained that Iraq and Syria have been rivals in the past, especially since Hafez al-Assad supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq war. Syria and Iraq still have not normalized relations, and the Iraqi government has accused Syria of supporting Baathist insurgents in Iraq. Within Iraq, many Sunnis, including the Speaker of Parliament, have called on Assad to step down and to allow for elections. Others, including Prime Minister Maliki and President Talibani (a Sunni), have accused Israel of fostering the demonstrations in an effort to destabilize the Syrian government.

Tufts student Firas Said outlined Lebanon's complicated and intertwined history with Syria, and broke down the reactions of different Lebanese political movements to recent events. The March 14 alliance, opposed to Syrian intervention in Lebanon since PM Hariri's assassination in 2005, hopes the regime will fall. Political parties Hezbollah and Amal receive support from Syria (and Hezbollah receives arms through Syria) and hope the regime will remain in power. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government has remained very neutral because it will have to work with whatever regime is in power, and wants to maintain stability regardless of Syrian internal politics.

Lucas Koerner, president of Tufts' Students for Justice in Palestine, explained that close to 400,000 Palestinian refugees live in Syria. Although their rights have been limited there, the transplants are more comfortable in Syria than in Lebanon and Jordan. Many Palestinians in Syria believe that an elected government would allow them to integrate and would produce a government more willing to pressure Israel to make concessions to Palestinians.

Lastly, Tufts Professor Osman Gunduz highlighted reactions within Turkey. He explained that relations between Turkey and Syria have been tenuous, but improving consistently since 1998. Gunduz asserted that the Arab Spring caught Turkey off guard. Many Syrian refugees have fled to Turkey, and the national response to them reveals Turkey's neutral posturing. Similar to Lebanon, Turkey knows that it will have to work with whatever regime is in power. However, the Turkish PM declared that he will no longer broker negotiations with Assad, as he seems unwilling to reform. The greater Turkish (majority Sunni) population is extremely angry about Assad's targeted killing of Sunnis, especially during Ramadan, and many hope to see him deposed.

Gunduz predicted that Turkey will position itself as a conduit between Syria and the west moving forward, but agreed with the other panelists that the future of Assad's regime is very difficult to predict and will have large implications for the region at large.

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