Descent into Chaos: the American Challenge in Pakistan, Afghanistan and entral Asia
October 13, 2008, 5:30PM
Cabot 206, The Fletcher School
Speaker: Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani journalist and best-selling author

Summary

In a very informative lecture, Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist and best-selling author, outlined the current challenges to US policy in Pakistan and Afghanistan and offered several recommendations.

Rashid began by discussing the status quo in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and how it was achieved. The months after the end of major combat operations in Afghanistan were full of promise: 90% of Afghans welcomed a US presence and the end of Taliban rule, and 3 million refugees rushed home with the hope of rebuilding their country. However, the U.S. did not capitalize on the situation, deciding to quickly pull out its best forces in order to re-train for Iraq and failing to implement any reconstruction projects until November 2004–despite the complete destruction of the nation's infrastructure. Furthermore, for the next three years, in a misguided strategy to keep the peace, the U.S. empowered the same warlords whose expulsion in 1994 was considered one of the only popular successes of the Taliban. This strategy ensured that the central government would be unable to control Afghanistan, as the warlords made themselves the sole authorities of their respective regions.

In the last nine months, there has been no reconstruction or development in Afghanistan and minimal NGO activity. Furthermore, along with the expansion of the Taliban into Pakistan and other central Asian countries, the insurgency in Afghanistan has increased significantly, as has their use of bold tactics such as suicide bombing. The Afghan drug trade, currently valued at $4 billion, funds much of this increased activity.

In discussing Pakistan, Rashid observes four primary issues responsible for the current situation: (1) military control of foreign and domestic policy; (2) a huge economic meltdown marked by 25% inflation, with industries unable to function due to lack of reliable electrical power; (3) political infighting which has distracted the government from making any substantive efforts to tackle violence and deal with the economy; and (4) terrorism. Rashid went on to discuss the fourth problem to great length. He noted that after the Afghanistan war the Taliban was only routed, not defeated. The U.S. was only truly concerned with destroying Al Qaeda; thus, in the postwar period, the U.S more or less ignored the Taliban despite pleas by Afghan President, Hamid Karzai.

As a result, the Taliban flourished in Pakistan, particularly in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which are not under the direct control of the Pakistani government. The region was mostly populated by Pashtuns before the Taliban began displacing the population and executing tribal elders. According to Rashid, the government's biggest mistake in these last few years was failing to protect these tribes, some of which were allied with the government.

Over the last 18 months, the Pakistani Taliban has become a movement with its own political agenda, namely Sharia law in North Pakistan. Emboldened by lax internal and external pressure, the Pakistani Taliban has spread beyond the FATA, as demonstrated by the recent wave of terror across the country. In the meantime, Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban are training would-be insurgents from all over Europe inside the FATA. Rashid argues that the insurgency in Afghanistan would not even be possible without this safe haven in Pakistan.

In short, US and NATO policies have failed in Afghanistan and the Taliban perceives itself to be winning. So, what can be done in the future? Rashid stressed that simply introducing more troops into Afghanistan is not enough; as long as there is a safe haven in Pakistan, insurgency movements will draw from a seemingly limitless pool of new recruits.

Rashid claims that a new regional diplomatic initiative is required that includes the cessation of external hostilities fueling the conflict in Afghanistan. So, while it is important that the U.S. talk with Iran, and that China, with its great capacity for investment, is involved in discussions, it is also necessary that India and Pakistan resolve their issues over Kashmir. A regional economic program must complement this diplomatic initiative, as the economic malaise of Afghanistan is beginning to spread into bordering countries.

Rashid concluded his lecture with a discussion on recent reports that the Taliban is considering disavowing Al Qaeda. He believes that sections of the Taliban may be willing to break with Al Qaeda, but questions whether Al Qaeda will allow for a complete break. Even if it ostensibly did, how anyone could verify it? Rashid claimed that those hard-line Taliban members who are not involved in this discussion must be dealt with militarily. In terms of dealing with the Pakistani Taliban, the movement derives its legitimacy from the Afghan Taliban. Thus, if the Afghan Taliban were to proclaim that what the Pakistani Taliban is doing is not jihad, public opinion would likely turn against the group, greatly weakening it.

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