What is the Impact of the US Presidential Elections on the Middle East?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008, 2:00PM
Fares Center Conference Room, Tufts University
Speakers: Iris Abraham, Erin Clancy, Emre Kayhan, and Dahlia Shaham

Summary

Indicative of the far-reaching nature of American policies, individuals and governments throughout the world take an acute interest in US politics. In the embattled Middle East, the upcoming presidential election arouses strong feelings among the populace and questions about the future of American endeavors in the region. With Professor Ibrahim Warde moderating, a panel of student speakers discussed summer activities undertaken in the Middle East, and the possible impact of the US election on the countries in which they resided.

Erin Clancy, MALD '09, spoke about her summer as a political officer at the US Embassy in Damascus, Syria. Assisting with US policy on refugees and the handling of internal dissidents, Clancy was able to see first-hand the effects of American policy in the Levant. She expects the next president will have to deal with issues such as water disputes with Syria and Arab-Israeli rapprochement. On the subject of the presidential election, Clancy, an Obama supporter, finds the democratic candidate's appointment of Middle East expert Dennis Ross to his campaign a promising step for a new administration. She disagrees, however, with Obama's proposed 18-month troop withdrawal from Iraq, calling such a timeframe "absolutely ludicrous."

Iris Abraham, MALD '09, spent the summer studying Arabic in Damascus. As a language student and tourist, she found access to the political situation there limited and opinions about Hamas virtually inaccessible. Her impression is that Syria should be more engaged as an international actor on the world stage, but in order to do so it must make concessions of its own. Abraham opposes the "axis of evil" label as diplomatically unproductive, and believes that the international community should be firm on Syria's conduct in Lebanon. As a German national, Abraham noted that Syrian people, for whom the war in Iraq is the most important element of US policy, seemed very dissatisfied with the current US administration and are eager for a change of direction.

Dahlia Shaham, MALD '09, conducted research in Israel for her thesis on the evolution of business relations between Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. She also looked at the implications of such relations for the Arab population of Israel. Shaham humorously characterized the often-secretive economic connections between Israel and the GCC countries as being like those of a married man and his mistress, paraphrasing an Israeli official with whom she spoke. For Arab nations, the core issue is the status of the Arab boycott of Israel. While Shaham does not foresee a peace settlement any time soon, she is hopeful about economic possibilities for Israel and the Arab states during the tenure of the next American president. Recent free trade agreements between the U.S. and Qatar and Bahrain have effectively cancelled the boycott for those countries. And, while business relations with Israel will certainly remain secretive at least until a peace settlement is reached, Shaham is optimistic about future relations.

PhD candidate Emre Kayhan spoke regarding the impact of the US election on American-Turkish relations. The most vital issue for the Turkish government is the status of the Kurds, particularly those in northern Iraq. Kayhan feels that the next American president will have to address the inevitable threat posed by Iran's emerging nuclear capability, as the country is "one screwdriver away from the real making of the bomb." For Kayhan, this will be the biggest issue the next US president will face in the Middle East, while the Kurdish issue will continue to dominate U.S.-Turkish relations specifically.

More Roundtable Events >